Uganda at Risk of Missing 2030 HIV/AIDS Targets Despite Slight Prevalence Decline, Experts Warn

Uganda may fail to meet its 2030 target of ending AIDS as a public health threat, experts have warned, despite new figures from the Uganda AIDS Commission (UAC) showing a slight decline in national HIV prevalence from 5.1% in 2023 to 4.9% at the end of 2024.

The latest data, released this week, reveals a geographically diverse epidemic, with prevalence rates ranging dramatically from 7.5% in the South Buganda sub-region to a low of 1.4% in Karamoja. This stark disparity highlights the uneven progress in the national fight against the virus.

According to the Commission's report, the regions with the highest HIV prevalence after South Buganda are Acholi, Ankole, Lango, North Buganda, and Kampala. The data further confirms a persistent trend: the epidemic remains concentrated in faster-urbanizing areas, outpacing the rates seen in rural communities.

Public health specialists point to this geographic imbalance as a critical obstacle. "A national average is misleading," cautioned Dr. Anita Nansubuga, an epidemiologist specializing in infectious diseases. "While the overall drop is encouraging, the hyper-localized epidemics in high-burden regions are burning intensely. Our current, generalized national approach is insufficient to douse these specific fires. Without targeted, sub-region-specific interventions, the 2030 goal will remain out of reach."

The experts' concerns are compounded by challenges such as persistent stigma, inconsistent condom use among young adults, and funding gaps for community-led programs. "We are losing momentum in prevention," a official from a partner health organization noted anonymously. "The focus has shifted heavily to treatment, which is vital, but we are not stopping new infections at the required pace, especially in urban hubs and key populations."

The Uganda AIDS Commission acknowledges the hurdles, emphasizing that the next phase of the fight requires precision. "The data tells us where to look," stated a UAC representative. "Our strategy must now evolve from a nationwide blanket to a tailored suit, addressing the unique drivers of the epidemic in each high-prevalence cluster."

As the deadline looms, the call from the health sector is clear: without an urgent, data-driven, and hyper-focused campaign to tackle the hotspots, Uganda's journey to end AIDS by 2030 faces a significant detour.